Mida süüa, et elada tervelt ja kvaliteetselt kõrge vanuseni?

Ebatervislikust toitumisest tulenev haiguskoormus on Eestis võrreldav tubaka ja alkoholi tarvitamisest saadava kahjuga. Olulisim toitumissoovitus on süüa rohkem taimseid toite, vähendades liha, kartuli, rafineeritud saia, leiva, makaronide ja maiustuste tarvitamist. Epidemioloogilised kohortuuringute metaanalüüsid viitavad suurimale tervisekasule neil, kes tarvitavad päevas keskmiselt 800 grammi juur- ja puuvilja. See on vähemalt kaks korda enam kui Eesti keskmine tarbimine. Taimsete toitude tootmise ja tarbimise suurendamiseks on vaja ühelt poolt suurendada tarbijate ja patsientide teadlikkust ning teiselt poolt suunata toiduainetööstust arendama oma tooteid tervislikumaks. Riigi võimalus inimeste käitumist muuta on rakendada reklaamipiiranguid ja maksumeetmeid, et parandada tervisliku toidu kättesaadavust ja populaarsust võrreldes ebatervisliku toiduga. Muudatuste tegemisel on arstidel ühiskonnas juhtiv roll. Eesti Arst 2018; 97(5):263–268 &nbsp

Psychosocial and socioeconomic factors in the development of cardiovascular disease: a study of causality, mediation, international variation, and prediction in predominantly Eastern European settings

BACKGROUND: Psychosocial and socioeconomic factors have previously been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). I ask: 1) Are these associations causal? 2) Do their pathways overlap with one another? 3) Can they account for international differences in CVD? 4) Can they improve clinical risk prediction models? METHODS: Causality between education and coronary artery disease was investigated with Mendelian randomization analyses. For mediation and international differences, data on participants aged 45–69 years from the population-based HAPIEE cohort study were analysed using Cox regressions. A novel risk prediction model was derived from this data, and external validation was performed using data from the Estonian BioBank study. RESULTS: 1) Genetic predisposition towards longer education was associated with a reduction in coronary artery disease (Odds Ratio=0.67 [95% CI= 0.59 to 0.77], per extra 3.6 extra years of education), as well as large reductions in smoking. 2) In observational analyses, cardiovascular mortality was independently associated with unemployment, low material amenities, depression, being single, infrequent contacts with friends and relatives. These associations were of similar magnitude when comparing minimallyadjusted and fully-adjusted models. 3) International differences in CVD mortality between Russian & Central European cohorts remained unexplained after adjustment for conventional, psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors. 4) Adding predominantly socioeconomic and psychosocial factors to risk prediction models improved their discrimination, clinical effectiveness, binary NRI and Net Benefit, in derivation and validation data. CONCLUSIONS: Education is probably a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease. At least 6 socioeconomic/psychosocial factors appear to associate with CVD along pathways that may be relatively independent of one another and the conventional CVD risk factors. Uncovering their mechanisms may suggest novel avenues for intervention. While the causes of international differences in cardiovascular mortality remain unclear, socioeconomic and psychosocial factors substantially improved the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction

Testing the myths of transition: was Estonia following the shock therapy model and Slovenia following the gradualist model in 1991-2000?

The aim of this paper is to conduct an exploratory analysis of factors that might explain the cross-national variations in the level tax morality across the European Union. In order to do this, three competing explanations for the cross-national variations in tax morality will be evaluated which variously view lower levels of tax morality to be a result of either: under-development (a modernisation explanation); high taxes, state corruption and too much state interference (a neo-liberal explanation), or too little state redistribution and intervention to protect citizens (a structuralist explanation). Evaluating the cross-national variations in tax morality reported in a 2007 Eurobarometer survey using multi level econometric techniques, the finding is that the tax morality of a baseline European citizen is higher in more developed and less corrupt nations and in countries with higher levels of taxation, social protection and redistribution. The outcome is a call for a synthesis of the three explanations in the form of a new neo-modernisation explanation which, contrary to neo-liberal discourse, argues that developed nations with higher levels of taxation, greater levels of social protection and higher levels of redistribution have higher levels of tax morality. The tentative policy implications are then discussed

Measles among migrants in the European Union and the European Economic Area

Aims: Progress towards meeting the goal of measles elimination in the EU and the European Economic Area (EEA) by 2015 is being obstructed, as some children are either not immunized on time or never immunized. One group thought to be at increased risk of measles is migrants; however, the extent to which this is the case is poorly understood, due to a lack of data. This paper addresses this evidence gap by providing an overview of the burden of measles in migrant populations in the EU/EEA. Methods: Data were collected through a comprehensive literature review, a country survey of EU/EEA member states and information from measles experts gathered at an infectious disease workshop. Results: Our results showed incomplete data on measles in migrant populations, as national surveillance systems do not systematically record migration-specific information; however, evidence from the literature review and country survey suggested that some measles outbreaks in the EU/EEA were due to sub-optimal vaccination coverage in migrant populations. Conclusions: We conclude that it is essential that routine surveillance of measles cases and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage become strengthened, to capture migrant-specific data. These data can help to inform the provision of preventive services, which may need to reach out to vulnerable migrant populations that currently face barriers in accessing routine immunization and health services

Improving 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in apparently healthy people : flexible addition of risk modifiers on top of SCORE2

AIMS: In clinical practice, factors associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) like albuminuria, education level, or coronary artery calcium (CAC) are often known, but not incorporated in cardiovascular risk prediction models. The aims of the current study were to evaluate a methodology for the flexible addition of risk modifying characteristics on top of SCORE2 and to quantify the added value of several clinically relevant risk modifying characteristics. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individuals without previous CVD or DM were included from the UK Biobank; Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC); Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA); European Prospective Investigation into Cancer, The Netherlands (EPIC-NL); and Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) studies (n = 409 757) in whom 16 166 CVD events and 19 149 non-cardiovascular deaths were observed over exactly 10.0 years of follow-up. The effect of each possible risk modifying characteristic was derived using competing risk-adjusted Fine and Gray models. The risk modifying characteristics were applied to individual predictions with a flexible method using the population prevalence and the subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of the relevant predictor. Risk modifying characteristics that increased discrimination most were CAC percentile with 0.0198 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0115; 0.0281] and hs-Troponin-T with 0.0100 (95% CI 0.0063; 0.0137). External validation was performed in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) cohort (UK, n = 518 015, 12 675 CVD events). Adjustment of SCORE2-predicted risks with both single and multiple risk modifiers did not negatively affect calibration and led to a modest increase in discrimination [0.740 (95% CI 0.736-0.745) vs. unimproved SCORE2 risk C-index 0.737 (95% CI 0.732-0.741)]. CONCLUSION: The current paper presents a method on how to integrate possible risk modifying characteristics that are not included in existing CVD risk models for the prediction of CVD event risk in apparently healthy people. This flexible methodology improves the accuracy of predicted risks and increases applicability of prediction models for individuals with additional risk known modifiers

Understanding the consequences of education inequality on cardiovascular disease: mendelian randomisation study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the role of body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour in explaining the effect of education on the risk of cardiovascular disease outcomes. DESIGN: Mendelian randomisation study. SETTING: UK Biobank and international genome-wide association study data. PARTICIPANTS: Predominantly participants of European ancestry. EXPOSURE: Educational attainment, BMI, systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour in observational analysis, and randomly allocated genetic variants to instrument these traits in mendelian randomisation. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURE: The risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular disease (all subtypes; all measured in odds ratio), and the degree to which this is mediated through BMI, systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour respectively. RESULTS: Each additional standard deviation of education (3.6 years) was associated with a 13% lower risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.89) in observational analysis and a 37% lower risk (0.63, 0.60 to 0.67) in mendelian randomisation analysis. As a proportion of the total risk reduction, BMI was estimated to mediate 15% (95% confidence interval 13% to 17%) and 18% (14% to 23%) in the observational and mendelian randomisation estimates, respectively. Corresponding estimates were 11% (9% to 13%) and 21% (15% to 27%) for systolic blood pressure and 19% (15% to 22%) and 34% (17% to 50%) for smoking behaviour. All three risk factors combined were estimated to mediate 42% (36% to 48%) and 36% (5% to 68%) of the effect of education on coronary heart disease in observational and mendelian randomisation analyses, respectively. Similar results were obtained when investigating the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: BMI, systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour mediate a substantial proportion of the protective effect of education on the risk of cardiovascular outcomes and intervening on these would lead to reductions in cases of cardiovascular disease attributable to lower levels of education. However, more than half of the protective effect of education remains unexplained and requires further investigation.Includes MRC, ESRC, Wellcome Trust and NIHR

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97\ub71 (95% UI 95\ub78-98\ub71) in Iceland, followed by 96\ub76 (94\ub79-97\ub79) in Norway and 96\ub71 (94\ub75-97\ub73) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18\ub76 (13\ub71-24\ub74) in the Central African Republic, 19\ub70 (14\ub73-23\ub77) in Somalia, and 23\ub74 (20\ub72-26\ub78) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91\ub75 (89\ub71-93\ub76) in Beijing to 48\ub70 (43\ub74-53\ub72) in Tibet (a 43\ub75-point difference), while India saw a 30\ub78-point disparity, from 64\ub78 (59\ub76-68\ub78) in Goa to 34\ub70 (30\ub73-38\ub71) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4\ub78-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20\ub79-point to 17\ub70-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17\ub72-point to 20\ub74-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe